Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

The Dow underperformed peers as transportation and industrials struggled with elevated diesel costs. The CPI print was a tale of two interpretations — Nasdaq and S&P 500 took the contained core read as positive, while the Dow's heavier industrial exposure kept it cautious. Structure shows hesitation rather than conviction in either direction.

Price action suggests: Rotation under recent highs, with breadth still favoring growth over cyclicals.

Gold rebounded to roughly $4,440 from the early-week low near $4,100 — a sharp reversal driven by collapsing real yields as oil rolled over and rate-cut expectations crept back into pricing. The opportunity-cost math that crushed gold in March began to reverse. ETF outflows slowed, and central bank physical demand remained the steady bid underneath.

Price action suggests: Recovery off support, with structure showing acceptance of the bounce as real yields ease.

WTI collapsed from above $112 to around $97 as the ceasefire announcement neutralized the supply shock. The Brent-WTI spread normalized as the security premium on landlocked barrels evaporated. Reports suggest the Hormuz blockade is still partially intact, which is keeping prices from falling further — the ceasefire is conditional on the strait reopening.

Price action suggests: Sharp rejection of $110+ highs, but acceptance of an elevated floor near $90 — markets still pricing residual disruption risk.

The euro recovered to 1.1613 after bouncing off lows near 1.1484 on the ceasefire news. Europe was the most exposed economy to the Hormuz disruption, so easing of energy fears unwound the safe-haven dollar bid that had been weighing on the pair. Structure shifted from range-bound suppression to a measured recovery.

Price action suggests: Rejection of recent lows with the pair reflecting unwinding of stagflation positioning.

Cable rallied roughly 0.5%, recovering from an early dip near 1.3260 to trade around 1.3430. The UK's energy-import vulnerability had been one of the heaviest pressures on sterling — easing oil prices removed a meaningful headwind. Markets still don't expect the BoE to resume cuts this year, but the relief is welcome.

Price action suggests: Recovery off lows with structure shifting from lower-highs to a base-building pattern.

The pair eased from 2026 extremes as the energy-trade-balance pressure on the yen unwound with falling oil. Japan's import bill is highly sensitive to crude — every $10/bbl decline meaningfully improves the structural picture. The BoJ's normalization path becomes more navigable when imported inflation softens.

Price action suggests: Hesitation at recent highs as the energy tailwind for the dollar fades.

A soft Canadian jobs print on Friday weighed on the loonie, but the broader oil reversal cut both ways — losing the $110 oil tailwind hurt CAD, while the broader USD softening offset some of that pressure. The pair is reflecting an unwind of last week's tension setup rather than picking a new direction.

Price action suggests: Two-way trade as opposing forces from last week resolve into a more neutral setup.