Weekly Market Letter
Nov 1, 2026
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8 min read
Four central banks and a UK Budget brought no surprises. Strong US data, big tech earnings and a new attack in the Strait of Hormuz did. Here is what moved seven markets.
Oct 25, 2026
Houthi attacks pushed Brent to a six-month high, AI stocks sold off again, and gold fell even as investors ran for safety. Here is why, ahead of a huge central bank week.
Oct 18, 2026
US CPI and PPI beat forecasts, October Fed hike odds swung from 20% to 54% and back, and oil topped $100. Here is what it all meant for seven markets.
Oct 11, 2026
All 19 Fed officials backed September’s hike, yet October odds stayed low. Here is why, plus record bond yields, gold’s rebound and Canada’s job losses.
Oct 5, 2026
Treasury yields hit their highest since 2002, gold slid to a seven-week low, and the euro fell to a 16-month low. Here is what moved seven markets, and why.
Sep 27, 2026
6 min read
Treasury yields reached levels last seen before the financial crisis, yet stocks closed higher as oil fell 8 percent on Iran diplomacy. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Sep 20, 2026
The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, the Bank of Japan hit a 31-year high, and the yen fell anyway. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Sep 13, 2026
August CPI ran hot and core inflation accelerated, pushing hike odds to 90 percent. The deciding number may be consumer inflation expectations at 4.6 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Sep 6, 2026
July's reported decline was revised into a gain, August added 162,000, and oil jumped 8 percent as the conflict widened. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Aug 30, 2026
September hike odds jumped roughly 20 points in a single session after the Fed Chair said inflation's underlying trend has not meaningfully improved. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Aug 27, 2026
5 min read
Rates went from 4% to 13% in the 1970s and gold rose twenty-fold. The rule is not wrong, it just points at the wrong number.
Aug 23, 2026
Treasury yields climbed toward long-term highs while the dollar hit a three-month low, and a doubled buyback program held for barely a day. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Aug 16, 2026
July CPI came in soft and the S&P cleared 7,800, then retail sales fell 0.6 percent and sentiment slid. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Aug 9, 2026
July payrolls dropped 23,000 and the S&P closed at a record the same day, while a Hormuz breakthrough sent oil down 9 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Aug 2, 2026
The FOMC held rates 9 to 3 with no forward guidance, Japan intervened to defend the yen, and oil closed July up 20 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Jul 26, 2026
Red Sea tanker attacks pushed Brent above $100 and sent the 10-year to its highest since January 2025, all two days before the Fed decides. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Jul 19, 2026
June inflation posted its first monthly drop in six years, but a semiconductor selloff and a fresh oil spike on the Iran escalation drove markets lower. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Jul 12, 2026
Renewed US and Iran strikes sent crude up around 4 percent, hawkish Fed minutes lifted yields, and September rate-hike odds climbed back toward 60 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Jul 5, 2026
June payrolls missed badly, the dollar posted its worst week since April, and gold snapped a four-week losing streak. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.
Jun 28, 2026
7 min read
WTI collapsed to $69 as Hormuz reopened, but PCE hit a three-year high of 4.1 percent. Why the backward-looking data and the forward-looking oil signal now point in opposite directions
Jun 21, 2026
The US-Iran peace deal sent oil crashing to $75, but Warsh used his first FOMC to flip the dot plot from a cut to a hike, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high
Jun 14, 2026
Why the headline numbers all pointed one way and markets went the other, what the soft core inflation read means for the Fed, and how a possible Iran peace deal reset everything before Warsh's first FOMC
Jun 7, 2026
Why a +172K jobs beat broke the S&P 500's nine-week rally, what the semiconductor wreck on Friday tells us, and why "good news became bad news" in this regime
May 31, 2026
Why falling oil drove everything this week, what the softer PCE print means for the Fed, and why broader equity participation is the most constructive sign of the year
May 24, 2026
Why falling oil and hawkish FOMC minutes pushed the Dow to a fresh record, what the Hormuz tolling dispute means for the next oil leg, and why Nvidia's beat barely moved the stock
