Weekly Market Letter

Three Central Banks Hiked This Week. None Can Fix the Real Problem

Sep 20, 2026

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6 min read

Three Central Banks Hiked This Week. None Can Fix the Real Problem

The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, the Bank of Japan hit a 31-year high, and the yen fell anyway. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Why the Fed Is About to Hike for the First Time Since 2023

Sep 13, 2026

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6 min read

Why the Fed Is About to Hike for the First Time Since 2023

August CPI ran hot and core inflation accelerated, pushing hike odds to 90 percent. The deciding number may be consumer inflation expectations at 4.6 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

The Job Losses That Never Happened: August Payrolls Rewrite the Summer

Sep 6, 2026

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6 min read

The Job Losses That Never Happened: August Payrolls Rewrite the Summer

July's reported decline was revised into a gain, August added 162,000, and oil jumped 8 percent as the conflict widened. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Warsh Reopens the Rate Hike Debate at Jackson Hole

Aug 30, 2026

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6 min read

Warsh Reopens the Rate Hike Debate at Jackson Hole

September hike odds jumped roughly 20 points in a single session after the Fed Chair said inflation's underlying trend has not meaningfully improved. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Why Gold Falls When Interest Rates Rise: The Real Yields Explanation

Aug 27, 2026

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5 min read

Why Gold Falls When Interest Rates Rise: The Real Yields Explanation

Rates went from 4% to 13% in the 1970s and gold rose twenty-fold. The rule is not wrong, it just points at the wrong number.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Yields Rose and the Dollar Fell: Why That Combination Matters

Aug 23, 2026

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6 min read

Yields Rose and the Dollar Fell: Why That Combination Matters

Treasury yields climbed toward long-term highs while the dollar hit a three-month low, and a doubled buyback program held for barely a day. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Inflation Cooled, But the Consumer Blinked

Aug 16, 2026

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6 min read

Inflation Cooled, But the Consumer Blinked

July CPI came in soft and the S&P cleared 7,800, then retail sales fell 0.6 percent and sentiment slid. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Jobs Fell, Stocks Hit Records: The Week the Hike Case Collapsed

Aug 9, 2026

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6 min read

Jobs Fell, Stocks Hit Records: The Week the Hike Case Collapsed

July payrolls dropped 23,000 and the S&P closed at a record the same day, while a Hormuz breakthrough sent oil down 9 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

A Divided Fed Holds as Three Officials Vote to Hike

Aug 2, 2026

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6 min read

A Divided Fed Holds as Three Officials Vote to Hike

The FOMC held rates 9 to 3 with no forward guidance, Japan intervened to defend the yen, and oil closed July up 20 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Oil Opens a Second Front as Yields Hit a 2025 High

Jul 26, 2026

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6 min read

Oil Opens a Second Front as Yields Hit a 2025 High

Red Sea tanker attacks pushed Brent above $100 and sent the 10-year to its highest since January 2025, all two days before the Fed decides. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

A Cooler CPI, a Chip Rout, and Oil Back Above $80

Jul 19, 2026

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6 min read

A Cooler CPI, a Chip Rout, and Oil Back Above $80

June inflation posted its first monthly drop in six years, but a semiconductor selloff and a fresh oil spike on the Iran escalation drove markets lower. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Oil Surges, the Fed Sounds Hawkish, and Gold Slips

Jul 12, 2026

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6 min read

Oil Surges, the Fed Sounds Hawkish, and Gold Slips

Renewed US and Iran strikes sent crude up around 4 percent, hawkish Fed minutes lifted yields, and September rate-hike odds climbed back toward 60 percent. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Weak Jobs, Softer Dollar: The Week Markets Rethought the Fed

Jul 5, 2026

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6 min read

Weak Jobs, Softer Dollar: The Week Markets Rethought the Fed

June payrolls missed badly, the dollar posted its worst week since April, and gold snapped a four-week losing streak. Here is how the seven markets moved and why.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Oil at a Pre-War Low, Inflation at a 3-Year High: The Timing Mismatch

Jun 28, 2026

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7 min read

Oil at a Pre-War Low, Inflation at a 3-Year High: The Timing Mismatch

WTI collapsed to $69 as Hormuz reopened, but PCE hit a three-year high of 4.1 percent. Why the backward-looking data and the forward-looking oil signal now point in opposite directions

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

The War Ends, the Hawk Arrives: Hormuz Reopens and Warsh Flips the Dot Plot

Jun 21, 2026

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7 min read

The War Ends, the Hawk Arrives: Hormuz Reopens and Warsh Flips the Dot Plot

The US-Iran peace deal sent oil crashing to $75, but Warsh used his first FOMC to flip the dot plot from a cut to a hike, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

A Whiplash Week: CPI at 4.2%, Airstrikes, and a Peace-Deal Rally

Jun 14, 2026

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7 min read

A Whiplash Week: CPI at 4.2%, Airstrikes, and a Peace-Deal Rally

Why the headline numbers all pointed one way and markets went the other, what the soft core inflation read means for the Fed, and how a possible Iran peace deal reset everything before Warsh's first FOMC

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Jun 7, 2026

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7 min read

The NFP Shock That Ended the Streak

Why a +172K jobs beat broke the S&P 500's nine-week rally, what the semiconductor wreck on Friday tells us, and why "good news became bad news" in this regime

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Oil's Worst Week, Dow Above 51,000, and a Tentative Iran Ceasefire

May 31, 2026

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7 min read

Oil's Worst Week, Dow Above 51,000, and a Tentative Iran Ceasefire

Why falling oil drove everything this week, what the softer PCE print means for the Fed, and why broader equity participation is the most constructive sign of the year

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Warsh's First Week, Hawkish Minutes, and a Dow Record Above 50,500

May 24, 2026

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7 min read

Warsh's First Week, Hawkish Minutes, and a Dow Record Above 50,500

Why falling oil and hawkish FOMC minutes pushed the Dow to a fresh record, what the Hormuz tolling dispute means for the next oil leg, and why Nvidia's beat barely moved the stock

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

CPI Shock, Warsh Sworn In, and a 45 Percent Hike Bet

May 17, 2026

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7 min read

CPI Shock, Warsh Sworn In, and a 45 Percent Hike Bet

Inflation hit a three-year high, a new Fed Chair took over Friday, oil rallied 9 percent, gold dropped 4 percent, and the 30-year yield broke above 5.1 for the first time since 2023

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Strong NFP, an Iran Peace Memo, and a Six-Week Equity Streak

May 10, 2026

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20 min read

Strong NFP, an Iran Peace Memo, and a Six-Week Equity Streak

Why the textbook playbook is not working in this regime, what the April jobs beat actually means for the Fed, and how oil moved 7 percent both ways on diplomatic headlines

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Powell's Last Stand: A Hawkish Hold, Stagflation Data, and a Yen Intervention

May 3, 2026

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21 min read

Powell's Last Stand: A Hawkish Hold, Stagflation Data, and a Yen Intervention

The most consequential week of the quarter delivered FOMC dissents, Q1 GDP at 2.0%, core PCE re-accelerating to 3.2%, BoJ intervention above $30B, and an Iran proposal that flipped oil

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

The Calm Before the FOMC: Oil, Records, and a Big Week Ahead

Apr 26, 2026

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19 min read

The Calm Before the FOMC: Oil, Records, and a Big Week Ahead

Why this week's quiet close hides four collisions arriving next week — Powell, Mag 7 earnings, Q1 GDP, and a Fed leadership transition

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Hormuz Opens, Oil Crashes, Gold Surges: The Reversal Week

Apr 19, 2026

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13 min read

Hormuz Opens, Oil Crashes, Gold Surges: The Reversal Week

Iran declared the strait open. Oil crashed 10% in a day. Gold hit its fourth straight weekly gain. And the Fed meets in 10 days.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

Apr 12, 2026

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1 min read

Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

A Tuesday ceasefire collapsed the oil shock, but Friday's CPI hit a 4-year high. The headline-vs-core split is now the most important chart in macro.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Three Central Banks Hiked This Week. None Can Fix the Real Problem

Why the Fed Is About to Hike for the First Time Since 2023

The Job Losses That Never Happened: August Payrolls Rewrite the Summer

Warsh Reopens the Rate Hike Debate at Jackson Hole

Why Gold Falls When Interest Rates Rise: The Real Yields Explanation

Yields Rose and the Dollar Fell: Why That Combination Matters

Inflation Cooled, But the Consumer Blinked

Jobs Fell, Stocks Hit Records: The Week the Hike Case Collapsed

A Divided Fed Holds as Three Officials Vote to Hike

Oil Opens a Second Front as Yields Hit a 2025 High

A Cooler CPI, a Chip Rout, and Oil Back Above $80

Oil Surges, the Fed Sounds Hawkish, and Gold Slips

Weak Jobs, Softer Dollar: The Week Markets Rethought the Fed

Oil at a Pre-War Low, Inflation at a 3-Year High: The Timing Mismatch

The War Ends, the Hawk Arrives: Hormuz Reopens and Warsh Flips the Dot Plot

A Whiplash Week: CPI at 4.2%, Airstrikes, and a Peace-Deal Rally

The NFP Shock That Ended the Streak

Oil's Worst Week, Dow Above 51,000, and a Tentative Iran Ceasefire

Warsh's First Week, Hawkish Minutes, and a Dow Record Above 50,500

CPI Shock, Warsh Sworn In, and a 45 Percent Hike Bet

Strong NFP, an Iran Peace Memo, and a Six-Week Equity Streak

Powell's Last Stand: A Hawkish Hold, Stagflation Data, and a Yen Intervention

The Calm Before the FOMC: Oil, Records, and a Big Week Ahead

Hormuz Opens, Oil Crashes, Gold Surges: The Reversal Week

Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

Fed’n Markets Newsletter