Weekly Market Letter

The War Ends, the Hawk Arrives: Hormuz Reopens and Warsh Flips the Dot Plot

Jun 21, 2026

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7 min read

The War Ends, the Hawk Arrives: Hormuz Reopens and Warsh Flips the Dot Plot

The US-Iran peace deal sent oil crashing to $75, but Warsh used his first FOMC to flip the dot plot from a cut to a hike, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

A Whiplash Week: CPI at 4.2%, Airstrikes, and a Peace-Deal Rally

Jun 14, 2026

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7 min read

A Whiplash Week: CPI at 4.2%, Airstrikes, and a Peace-Deal Rally

Why the headline numbers all pointed one way and markets went the other, what the soft core inflation read means for the Fed, and how a possible Iran peace deal reset everything before Warsh's first FOMC

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Jun 7, 2026

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7 min read

The NFP Shock That Ended the Streak

Why a +172K jobs beat broke the S&P 500's nine-week rally, what the semiconductor wreck on Friday tells us, and why "good news became bad news" in this regime

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Oil's Worst Week, Dow Above 51,000, and a Tentative Iran Ceasefire

May 31, 2026

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7 min read

Oil's Worst Week, Dow Above 51,000, and a Tentative Iran Ceasefire

Why falling oil drove everything this week, what the softer PCE print means for the Fed, and why broader equity participation is the most constructive sign of the year

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Warsh's First Week, Hawkish Minutes, and a Dow Record Above 50,500

May 24, 2026

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7 min read

Warsh's First Week, Hawkish Minutes, and a Dow Record Above 50,500

Why falling oil and hawkish FOMC minutes pushed the Dow to a fresh record, what the Hormuz tolling dispute means for the next oil leg, and why Nvidia's beat barely moved the stock

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

CPI Shock, Warsh Sworn In, and a 45 Percent Hike Bet

May 17, 2026

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7 min read

CPI Shock, Warsh Sworn In, and a 45 Percent Hike Bet

Inflation hit a three-year high, a new Fed Chair took over Friday, oil rallied 9 percent, gold dropped 4 percent, and the 30-year yield broke above 5.1 for the first time since 2023

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Strong NFP, an Iran Peace Memo, and a Six-Week Equity Streak

May 10, 2026

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20 min read

Strong NFP, an Iran Peace Memo, and a Six-Week Equity Streak

Why the textbook playbook is not working in this regime, what the April jobs beat actually means for the Fed, and how oil moved 7 percent both ways on diplomatic headlines

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Powell's Last Stand: A Hawkish Hold, Stagflation Data, and a Yen Intervention

May 3, 2026

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21 min read

Powell's Last Stand: A Hawkish Hold, Stagflation Data, and a Yen Intervention

The most consequential week of the quarter delivered FOMC dissents, Q1 GDP at 2.0%, core PCE re-accelerating to 3.2%, BoJ intervention above $30B, and an Iran proposal that flipped oil

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

The Calm Before the FOMC: Oil, Records, and a Big Week Ahead

Apr 26, 2026

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19 min read

The Calm Before the FOMC: Oil, Records, and a Big Week Ahead

Why this week's quiet close hides four collisions arriving next week — Powell, Mag 7 earnings, Q1 GDP, and a Fed leadership transition

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Hormuz Opens, Oil Crashes, Gold Surges: The Reversal Week

Apr 19, 2026

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13 min read

Hormuz Opens, Oil Crashes, Gold Surges: The Reversal Week

Iran declared the strait open. Oil crashed 10% in a day. Gold hit its fourth straight weekly gain. And the Fed meets in 10 days.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

Apr 12, 2026

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1 min read

Ceasefire, Oil Crash, Hot CPI: The Week Markets Flipped

A Tuesday ceasefire collapsed the oil shock, but Friday's CPI hit a 4-year high. The headline-vs-core split is now the most important chart in macro.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Strong Jobs, $110 Oil, Gold Crushed: The Stagflation Week

Apr 5, 2026

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1 min read

Strong Jobs, $110 Oil, Gold Crushed: The Stagflation Week

March NFP came in hot, the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, and gold finished its worst month since 2008. Here's the macro + price action breakdown for 7 markets.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Stagflation Shows Up in the Data — Dow Enters Correction, Gold's Worst Month Since 2008

Mar 29, 2026

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1 min read

Stagflation Shows Up in the Data — Dow Enters Correction, Gold's Worst Month Since 2008

Flash PMIs signal 1% GDP growth and 4% inflation. S&P posts 5th straight weekly loss. OECD raises US inflation forecast to 4.2%. Ceasefire rallies last one day.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Mar 22, 2026

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1 min read

The Week Everything Converged

Five central banks held firm. Inflation forecasts rose. Gold had its worst week since 1983. Oil stayed near $100. And rate cuts? They're off the table until the war ends.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Week Three: Oil Above $100, New Leader Vows Continued Blockade

Mar 15, 2026

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1 min read

Week Three: Oil Above $100, New Leader Vows Continued Blockade

Iran's new Supreme Leader pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. The IEA released 400 million barrels — the largest in history — and it barely made a dent. This is stagflation.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Mar 8, 2026

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1 min read

Oil's Historic Week — And It's Not Over

WTI surged 35.63% — the largest weekly gain in futures history. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The US shed 92,000 jobs. Welcome to Week One of the Iran war.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Mar 1, 2026

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1 min read

War Returns to the Middle East

US-Israeli strikes kill Iran's Supreme Leader. Strait of Hormuz closes. Markets will not reopen to the same world they closed in.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Supreme Court vs. Trump, Fed Hawks Circle, Iran Deadline Looms

Feb 22, 2026

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1 min read

Supreme Court vs. Trump, Fed Hawks Circle, Iran Deadline Looms

A week where legal history, monetary policy, and geopolitics collided — and the ground kept shifting beneath traders' feet.

Sam Mo

Weekly Market Letter

Feb 15, 2026

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1 min read